The social-political challenges of internal displacements in Ukraine

Abstract

Migratory threats which are connected with mass internal inter-regional migrations, caused by the annexation of Crimea and military aggression in Donbas by Russia, have been disclosed in the article. The social-political and psychological threats of large-scale forced displacement are determined. Traditional migrations are mainly due to social-economic factors and the independent voluntary choice of participants in these processes regarding the intention to move, dictated by the freedom of choice of the person. Instead, forced displacements are caused by immediate threats to life and health. Analyzing the factors of migratory attraction, the cluster analysis was performed using the k-means method and using the STATISTICA program. The results of cluster analysis show that in large regions the level of IDP migratory activity is higher and the impact on the formation of demographic capital is more significant. It does not affect the number and composition of the population as a whole, but causes changes in its location, gender, and the age structure of the inhabitants of individual regions, is a consequence and an important factor of regional differences, directly related to industrialization and urbanization, rural depopulation. In terms of volume, internal migration significantly outperforms international migration. Measures for the proper formation and development of demographic potential at the macro level are proposed. Without proper regulation, forced displacement becomes a growing burden on host communities' ability to provide basic services, destroys civilian infrastructure and community cohesion, undermines public investment in reform, and creates insecurity, hopelessness, and despair among large populations that can easily become national and global risks.