The Paradox of the Mobius Effect in the Context of the Ukrainian Securities Market Transformation during the Martial Law

Abstract

The article examines the phenomenon known as the Mobius effect in the context of the transformation of the Ukrainian securities market during a period of full-scale war and deep economic disruption. The concept of the Mobius effect is associated with the assumption that the most significant investment opportunities arise during periods of maximum uncertainty and pessimism in financial markets. The Ukrainian securities market under current conditions represents a unique case of an economic system operating under simultaneous military, political and financial shocks. The purpose of the study is to identify the specific manifestations of this phenomenon within the national financial environment and to analyse structural changes taking place in the capital market. The research is based on comparative analysis, generalisation of statistical data related to government debt instruments and theoretical approaches of behavioural economics. Particular attention is given to the transformation of investor profiles and to the role of digital financial services in maintaining market functionality. The results indicate that the Ukrainian securities market has undergone a substantial transformation during the wartime period. While the corporate segment demonstrates limited activity, the segment of government debt instruments shows a significant increase in participation by private investors. The emergence of this new market model reflects the interaction of economic incentives, social solidarity and the expanding role of digital financial platforms. The findings suggest that the Ukrainian experience may be interpreted as an example of capital market adaptation under systemic crisis conditions and may serve as a foundation for the future recovery of the financial sector in the post-war period.